Can Indian markets keep rising when US tech keeps falling? That is the question for GIFT Nifty this week.
Nifty gained 2% last week while the Nasdaq lost about 2%. Friday night brought another sharp Nasdaq fall. Yet GIFT Nifty was trading higher on Monday morning, helped by a 2% drop in Brent.
The biggest event is the US midterm election on Tuesday.
Results will arrive during Indian night hours, so Wednesday morning could be the most important open. Keep the live GIFT Nifty tracker handy from Tuesday evening.
A Note on Timings This Week
US clocks moved back one hour on November 1. US Eastern Time is now 10.5 hours behind IST.
So a US release at 8:30 AM ET now lands at 7:00 PM IST, not 6:00 PM. All times below are in IST.
This Week at a Glance (Nov 2-6, 2026)
Company result dates are from published calendars and can change. Check exchange filings for confirmed timings.
Most important market day this week: Wednesday, November 4.
Polls start closing in the US around 5:30 AM IST on Wednesday. Results will keep coming through the Indian trading day. GIFT Nifty will absorb the first reaction before NSE opens at 9:15 AM.
Where Markets Start the Week
These are the latest verified levels before publication. They are not live prices.
We could not verify a reliable Dollar Index level for Friday's close, so it is left out.
Check the latest level on Belong's GIFT Nifty Live tracker.
6 Things That Could Move GIFT Nifty This Week
1. The US Midterm Elections
What's happening
Americans vote on Tuesday for all 435 House seats, 35 Senate seats and 36 governorships. Prediction markets put the highest odds on Democrats winning both chambers. They are probabilities, not outcomes.
Why GIFT Nifty investors should care
Control of Congress shapes US spending, tax and trade policy. Markets usually dislike uncertainty more than any single result. A clear outcome can calm nerves, even if it is not the one markets expected.
There is also an oil angle. Reports say Washington has favoured diplomacy with Iran ahead of the vote. Any change in that stance after the election could move crude.
What to watch
Watch whether results are clear by Wednesday morning IST or drag on. A contested result would likely matter more than who wins.
2. The US Jobs Report and ISM Surveys
What's happening
The US October jobs report lands at 7:00 PM IST on Friday. Consensus expects about 55,000 to 60,000 new jobs, after 29,000 in September. Unemployment is expected to stay at 4.2%.
The ISM manufacturing survey comes on Monday night, and ISM services on Wednesday night. Both consensus readings sit near 54.7. A reading above 50 signals expansion.
Why GIFT Nifty investors should care
Markets price roughly an 85% chance of a Fed interest rate hike on December 9. Strong jobs or hot prices in the ISM surveys could firm that up. That tends to lift US yields and the dollar, which weighs on foreign flows into India.
A weak jobs number could do the opposite. It may also raise growth worries, so the reaction is not one-directional.
What to watch
Watch wage growth inside the jobs report, expected at 0.3% for the month. Also watch the "prices paid" index in the ISM surveys, which has been near recent highs.
3. Crude Oil and US-Iran Talks
What's happening
Brent fell about 2% early on Monday to around $111 a barrel. Reports of US-Iran diplomacy eased some supply fears. Last week Brent traded mostly between $113 and $116.
Why GIFT Nifty investors should care
Oil is still the biggest external risk for India. Every sustained drop helps the import bill, the rupee and inflation. Oil marketing companies, paints and airlines usually react first.
What to watch
Watch whether Brent holds below $113. ONGC's results on Thursday will show how producers handled a high-price quarter.
4. Q2 Earnings, Starting With Reliance and Jio
What's happening
Reliance Industries reported a 41% jump in quarterly net profit to ₹25,548 crore over the weekend. Jio Platforms, in its first results as a listed company, posted net profit of ₹8,389 crore, up 14%. Sun Pharma's profit fell 36%.
The week then brings SBI on Tuesday and a heavy Thursday. Bharti Airtel, Mahindra & Mahindra, Titan, Britannia, LIC and ONGC are all scheduled that day.
Why GIFT Nifty investors should care
Reliance is one of the largest weights in Nifty. Its reaction on Monday could set the opening tone. SBI is a bellwether for public sector banks, which have lagged recently.
What to watch
Watch margin commentary from consumer names like Titan and Britannia. High crude has squeezed input costs. Our view on stock selection explains why we weigh margins over headline profits.
For new listings like Jio, see our IPO investing page. GIFT City listings follow a separate route, covered in our GIFT City IPO guide.
5. Foreign Flows and the Rupee
What's happening
FPIs bought about ₹6,300 crore of Indian equities last week, per depository data. That followed heavy selling. October still ended with net outflows of ₹34,843 crore.
The rupee closed Friday at 94.93 per dollar, after gaining 33 paise that day.
Why GIFT Nifty investors should care
One week of buying does not confirm a turn. If FPIs keep buying, it would support large caps and the rupee. If selling resumes after the US election, both could come under pressure.
Read more on what GIFT Nifty tells you about FII sentiment.
What to watch
Watch daily provisional FPI numbers after Wednesday's election results. Watch whether USD/INR stays below 95.
6. US Tech Results and Global Central Banks
What's happening
Apple reports after the US close on Monday, Palantir the same evening and AMD on Tuesday. Qualcomm and Arm report on Wednesday.
The Reserve Bank of Australia decides on Tuesday, with markets pricing a high chance of a hike. The Bank of England decides on Thursday. Forecasters are split between a hold and a first hike.
Why GIFT Nifty investors should care
Last week, US tech fell on AI spending worries while Indian IT rose. Another week of tech weakness would test whether that rotation holds.
More central banks raising rates also tightens global liquidity, the ease with which money flows into riskier assets. That rarely helps emerging markets.
What to watch
Watch Nifty IT's reaction to Apple and AMD. Our guide on how US stock market movements affect Indian markets explains why the link is not always direct.
Three Possible Scenarios for the Week
These are scenarios, not predictions. Each depends on how several events combine.
Positive-Risk Scenario
The midterm result is clear by Wednesday morning. Brent stays below $113 as US-Iran talks continue. Jobs data is steady without a wage spike.
In that mix, US yields could ease and FPI buying might continue. Strong results from SBI and Airtel would add support to large caps.
Neutral Scenario
The election result is mostly as prediction markets expect. Oil stays between $108 and $116, and US data lands near consensus.
Markets could then move in a range. Individual stock reactions to results would matter more than the index. Diwali week trading can also be thinner than usual.
Risk-Off Scenario
Results are contested or delayed. Talks with Iran stall and Brent rebounds above $116. A hot jobs report pushes December hike odds higher.
GIFT Nifty may react overnight, before the Indian cash market opens. A gap-down could follow, and FPI selling might resume.
The Days GIFT Nifty Watchers Should Pay Extra Attention
Tuesday night to Wednesday morning.
US polls close from about 5:30 AM IST on Wednesday.
NSE is shut until 9:15 AM, so GIFT Nifty will move first. Check the current GIFT Nifty level before the open.
Friday, 7:00 PM IST onwards.
The US jobs report arrives after NSE has closed. GIFT Nifty will carry the reaction into the evening, as our guide to GIFT Nifty trading hours explains.
Sunday, November 8.
NSE holds its Diwali Muhurat trading session from 2:20 PM to 3:30 PM. It will be the first Indian cash session after the jobs report.
Note that markets are closed on Tuesday, November 10, for Diwali Balipratipada.
This is why GIFT Nifty works as an early indicator. It trades while the Indian cash market is closed.
Your 30-Second GIFT Nifty Morning Check
Check the current GIFT Nifty level.
Compare it with the previous Nifty close.
Calculate the indicative gap.
Check how US and Asian markets moved.
Check whether a scheduled event happened overnight.
Indicative Gap % = (GIFT Nifty - Previous Nifty Close) / Previous Nifty Close x 100
Using Monday's numbers: (23,258 - 23,053.10) / 23,053.10 x 100 is about +0.89%. That signals a positive open.
Notice a detail. Reports said GIFT Nifty was "up 172 points." That compares it with its own previous close, not with Nifty's.
The gap to Nifty is about 205 points. Always calculate against the Nifty close.
This is only an indication, not a guarantee. GIFT Nifty is a futures contract, so it can trade at a premium or discount to Nifty.
For context, use GIFT Nifty futures, GIFT Nifty chart explained, GIFT Nifty historical data and GIFT Nifty live weekly.
What Happened Last Week?
Two narratives stood out. First, Indian IT rose even as US tech sold off on AI spending worries. Investors appeared to rotate towards service providers and away from heavy spenders.
Second, pharma led sectors with a weekly gain of about 7%. Friday's breadth was weak, though. Far more stocks fell than rose, even as Nifty climbed.
What This Means for NRIs and Resident Indians
A week packed with overnight events can feel busy. Most of it does not need a decision from you.
If you are an NRI: Working in Dubai and planning a Diwali transfer home? Watch the rupee rather than the index this week. Compare deposit choices in our GIFT City FD vs FCNR vs NRO and NRE FDs guide.
The NRI FD rates tool helps you compare quickly. USD fixed deposits keep savings in dollars if you want to avoid rupee risk.
With global rates still rising, home loan rates are unlikely to ease soon. If an NRI home loan is on your list, keep your CIBIL score clean.
If you are a resident Indian: Is your portfolio entirely in India? Last week showed the value of spreading risk.
Indian stocks rose while US tech fell. Another week could reverse that.
Read how to invest in the USA from India for a simple start to global investing from India.
Compare dollar funds on the GIFT City mutual funds tool. Examples include the DSP Global Equity Fund and the Edelweiss Greater China Equity Fund.
India-focused options include the Tata India Dynamic Equity Fund and the Sundaram India Mid Cap Fund. These are examples, not recommendations. Eligibility depends on residential status.
You can also review GIFT City alternative investment funds and our mutual funds page. Travelling for Diwali? Compare forex charges on credit cards in India.
A common mistake in election weeks: Investors often sell before a big vote and buy back after. That swaps one risk for another, and adds costs. Our note on timing the market vs time in the market covers why.
Decision clarity:
If your goal is long-term wealth, keep SIPs running through the election week.
If your timeline is short, avoid fresh equity bets before Wednesday's results.
If you trade derivatives, learn how futures and options expiry works before Tuesday.
If you book gains around Muhurat trading, keep records ready for tax filing.
What happens if you ignore the calendar? You may react to a gap at 9:15 AM without knowing the news behind it.
Bottom Line
The US midterm election is the biggest event of the week. A clear result matters more to markets than the winner.
Crude oil remains the biggest external risk. Monday's dip below $112 helps, but it depends on US-Iran talks holding.
The US 10-year yield is the indicator to watch, now near 4.94%. A jobs surprise on Friday could move it either way.
Wednesday is the most important day. Election results arrive overnight, and GIFT Nifty will price them before NSE opens.
Check the GIFT Nifty Live tracker during the week for the latest level and indicative opening signal.
FAQs
What is the GIFT Nifty outlook this week?
GIFT Nifty this week will likely track the US midterms, the US jobs report, crude oil and Q2 results. It opened Monday about 0.9% above Friday's Nifty close.
Will the US midterm elections affect Indian markets?
They can, mainly through US yields, the dollar and oil policy. Results arrive overnight in India, so GIFT Nifty shows the first reaction on Wednesday morning.
Is the stock market open during Diwali 2026?
NSE trades normally from November 2 to 6. Muhurat trading is on Sunday, November 8, from 2:20 PM to 3:30 PM. Markets are closed on Tuesday, November 10.
What time is the US jobs report in India this week?
It is due at 7:00 PM IST on Friday, November 6. US clocks changed on November 1, so it is one hour later than in October.
Does GIFT Nifty predict the Nifty opening?
It gives an indication, not a guarantee. Read our GIFT Nifty vs Nifty 50 comparison for why the two can differ.
Disclaimer
This article is for informational and educational purposes only and should not be considered investment advice. Market conditions can change rapidly. Always evaluate your own financial situation and risk tolerance before making investment decisions.
Details of our regulatory registrations are on our licences page.
Sources
Business Standard, pre-market live blog Nov 2, 2026 (GIFT Nifty, Brent, US close, Q2 results today, US-Iran talks): https://www.business-standard.com/amp/markets/news/stock-market-live-november-2-nse-bse-sensex-today-nifty50-gift-nifty-crude-oil-prices-q2-results-jio-share-price-ipo-today-126110200053_1.html
Kotak Neo, pre-market Nov 2, 2026 (Nifty and Sensex Friday close): https://www.kotakneo.com/news/market-news/pre-market-2-november-2026-cautious-optimism-may-prevail/
Sunday Guardian, Reliance, Jio Platforms, NTPC and Sun Pharma Q2 results: https://sundayguardianlive.com/business/stocks-to-watch-today-november-2-reliance-jio-platforms-and-ntpc-announce-q2-earnings-as-sun-pharma-posts-profit-decline-check-key-corporate-updates-before-market-opening-315612/
Goodreturns, Q2 results calendar Nov 2-6, 2026: https://www.goodreturns.in/personal-finance/q2-results-this-week-itc-marico-bajaj-finserv-apollo-hospitals-bse-hindalco-among-key-stocks-to-watc-1544365.html
Newsquawk, week in focus Nov 2-6, 2026 (midterms, NFP, ISM, RBA, BoE consensus): https://www.newsquawk.com/headlines/week-in-focus-2nd-6th-november-2026-highlights-include-us-midterm-election-nfp-ism-pmis-rba-boe-and-ez-cpi-
CMC Markets, week ahead (jobs report, ISM, Apple, BoE): https://www.cmcmarkets.com/en-gb/news-and-analysis/the-week-ahead-ism-pmi-reports-us-jobs-report-apple-earnings
Stock Titan, US earnings calendar week of Nov 2, 2026: https://www.stocktitan.net/articles/earnings-calendar-week-of-november-2-2026
Business Standard, FPI flows October 2026: https://www.business-standard.com/finance/news/fpis-pull-out-34-843-cr-from-equities-in-oct-turn-net-buyers-last-week-126110100182_1.html
Deccan Herald (PTI), rupee close Oct 30, 2026: https://www.deccanherald.com/business/markets/rupee-rises-33-paise-to-close-at-9493-against-us-dollar-4201069
WRE News (US Treasury data), 10-year yield Oct 30, 2026: https://wrenews.com/treasury-10-year-yield-494-october-30-2026-mortgage-outlook/
TheStreet, US market close Oct 30, 2026: https://www.thestreet.com/stock-market-today/stock-market-today-dow-jones-sp-500-nasdaq-updates-oct-30-2026
Fat Tail, December Fed hike odds: https://fattail.ai/september-pce-inflation-2026/
PL Capital, NSE holidays and Muhurat trading November 2026: https://www.plindia.com/news/stock-market-holidays-in-november-2026-muhurat-trading-date-and-timings/
Quantsapp, NSE expiry calendar: https://www.quantsapp.com/expiry-calendar
HDFC Sky, Oct 30 sector snapshot and breadth: https://hdfcsky.com/news/sectoral-snapshot-today-october-30-2026-it-rallies-as-investors-seek-refuge-from-global-ai-rout-pharma-advances-after-results
Business News This Week, weekly sector moves: https://businessnewsthisweek.com/business/indian-stock-market-weekly-update-sensex-nifty-witness-volatility-as-it-selling-and-rising-crude-oil-prices-weigh-on-sentiment/
Summary
GIFT Nifty this week: the US midterm results land overnight on Wednesday, the US jobs report arrives Friday evening, and Brent is easing on US-Iran talks. Add SBI, Airtel and Titan results and a Sunday Muhurat session. Here are the dates, scenarios and overnight windows worth checking on the GIFT Nifty Live tracker.